Interprovincial Migration

Topic Box from the 2006 Sixth Annual Benchmark Report

Statistics Canada recently updated its population projection for Canada, the provinces and the territories. The new report presents the results of six population projection scenarios from 2005 through 2031 for the provinces and territories and up to 2056 for Canada. Projections are based on assumptions that take into account the most recent trends relating to components of population growth, particularly: fertility; mortality; immigration; emigration; and, interprovincial migration.

Of these components, interprovincial migration is the most volatile factor in population projections and with the projected decline in natural increase, migration will become a more important factor in population growth for several provinces.

Assumptions for migration are based on past patterns. Analysis of the 1971-2003 period shows that BC and Alberta gained the most from migration, averaging a net gain of 15,000 and 11,200 people per year. At the other end of the spectrum, Quebec had net negative migration every year and has lost an average of 15,000 people per year. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador generally had net migration losses as well. Net migration was almost balanced for Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Ontario's net migration was positive half the time but managed to gain an average of 3,500 people per year.

Due to the considerable uncertainty surrounding future interprovincial migration patterns – which are affected by cyclical (economic recessions) and single events (fishing moratoriums, Quebec referendums) – Statistics Canada developed four possible assumptions for migration patterns.

The Central-West Assumption is based on migration patterns observed between 1996 and 2000. This assumption favours Ontario and Alberta and is the least favourable to Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

The West Coast Assumption is based on 1988 through 1996 patterns. BC makes its largest population gains and Alberta its smallest under this assumption. Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan suffer their largest losses under this assumption.

The Recent Trends Assumption is based on data from 2000-2003, the most recent available at the time of the analysis, and seems to portray a new pattern. Quebec's migration, although still negative, improved over this period and most other provinces also saw improvement. This assumption cuts into Alberta's and Ontario's net gains although the two remain the most attractive destination provinces.

The Medium Assumption is an average of the Recent Trends and West Coast assumptions.

Of the 108 possible projection scenarios created by three assumptions on fertility, mortality and immigration and the four on migration, Statistics Canada chooses six that offer a range of possible population growth scenarios for the provinces and territories. The low and high growth scenarios produce the smallest and largest national populations. These scenarios use, respectively, the low and high assumptions for fertility, life expectancy and immigration and the medium migration assumption. Reflecting the importance of interprovincial migration in the population projection, the other four scenarios use medium assumptions for fertility, life expectancy and immigration and each of the four migration assumptions.

Mean annual population growth in BC is projected to range between 6.2 and 13.7 percent (compared to national figures of 4.5 to 10.0 percent) under the six scenarios which could take BC from an observed population share of 13.2 percent in 2005 to a low of 12.8 percent (scenario 2: medium fertility, life expectancy and immigration with the Recent migration assumption) to a high of 15.5 percent (scenario 4: medium fertility, life expectancy and immigration with the West Coast migration assumption).

Source: Statistics Canada (2005) Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, cat. # 91-520-XIE.